The New Year, Real Estate and Home Equity Lines of Credit
There's a scary scenario making the rounds these days that goes something like this: The boom in house prices over the first half of this decade created
trillions in real estate wealth, which Americans feverishly tapped out to buy cars,
big-screen TV's and other goods and services. But now that the housing bust has arrived, this scenario posits,
falling prices will throw everything into
reverse, causing a consumer retrenchment with adverse implications for the economy at large. While the basic story line has merit, it nonetheless exaggerates the risk, for a variety of reasons.
First,
house prices have not fallen. While there have been occasional reports to that effect from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Commerce Department, each of these sources cite "median sales prices" which historically have overstated both price appreciation and decline. Now, for example, housing is relatively unaffordable, which causes there to be proportionately more sales of lower priced homes, which biases median sales price measures downward. A more accurate measure of price appreciation, from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, shows third quarter house prices up 6 percent from one year ago, though slowing to just a 1.5 percent rate during the quarter. Prices may well decline going forward,
but at this point declines are isolated, not generalized.
Second, while it is true that equity extractions from the real estate market have been huge in recent years, these extractions have not translated directly into consumer spending. According to the benchmark resource on this topic, Greenspan and Kennedy at the Federal Reserve, active
withdrawals from the housing market (via cash-out refinances or home equity borrowing) amounted to a staggering $1.4 trillion over the past three years alone. However, according to a Fed survey of cash-out refinancings during 2001 and 2002, 47 percent of these withdrawn funds were merely reallocated to other purposes, such as securities investments or paying down
other (generally more expensive) debts. Other uses included paying taxes (2 percent) and home improvements (35 percent). Only 16 percent went toward conventional consumer spending.
A third caveat is that, in spite of these huge equity withdrawals,
real estate wealth is still at record levels. As of the third quarter there was $104,000 in real estate equity for every household in America, up from $102,000 one year ago and $89,000 three years ago (controlling for inflation). This means there is plenty of equity left for tapping, should we choose to do so.
Fourth, thanks to technological advances and intense competition in the mortgage market, Americans will probably do exactly that. Mortgage transaction costs (e.g. points and fees) have fallen 75 percent over the past 20 years while the variety of mortgage products has expanded vastly. As a result, borrowers refinance more often and manage their debt more aggressively than used to be the case.
Of course, things would be even better if house prices were still climbing at a double-digit pace. But the end of a boom need not be followed by a boom of an end. (12/19/06)
Compliments, from Bobbi Clemens and National City